Superforcecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book about how to make more accurate judgment about how things will work out. Amazon 
I heard about this a few times, on Freakonomics, but more recently from Tim Harford. Pod
The Economist reports that superforecasters are clever (with a good mental attitude), but not necessarily geniuses. It reports on the treasure trove of data coming from The Good Judgment Project, showing that accurately selected amateur forecasters (and the confidence they had in their forecasts) were often more accurately tuned than experts. Wikipedia